Post by Pax on May 16, 2011 18:15:34 GMT -5
This is a reply to a facebook post that someone had made. I thought you guys might be interested too.
Here's the post. It's about rapid obsolescence.
I'm speaking primarily of standard tube televisions. Which were replaced by flat panels, and that's not so bad. But then there are digital tuners. And streaming off the internet. Sure in both cases you can get an older television to handle them by acquiring new devices, but prior to about the last ten years or so how often did THAT happen? A TV was a TV, and ok, so you needed a cable set-top box and probably also had a DVD player, but you never left like, oh geez, what am I going to have to buy NEXT month? It seems likely that in less than a few years there will be some other must-have technology that hasn't been invented today that televisions will need.
But it's not just that device. Take cameras and PDA's. Those things were wildly popular of course... PDA's for a more limited time. Existing ones, if they're properly taken care of, should last decades... but have been replaced by cell phones that have PDA functionality now. Who carries around a PDA AND a cell phone these days?
How about plain old cameras -- ones that aren't integrated into cell phones? You won't see many of those outside the hands of professionals in a few short years. Existing digital cameras are perfectly good and if taken care of could last decades... but obsolete. The memory cards they store their data on... I wouldn't be surprised if in five years you'd have trouble finding a computer or a picture kiosk that would accept the models available today.
And take the cell phone itself. Only five years ago, there were different kinds of phones, but they all played in the same ecosystem. With the iPhone, the game changed... in a couple years, it'll be hard to find a cell phone that isn't a "smart phone." My phone is a nice touch screen non-smart phone, and it'll last years because I take good care of it, but in September I'll be getting an iPhone anyway because it's a mobile hotspot (a technology not even dreamed of a couple years ago) for an iPad which I also want (another technology that well wasn't viable until a couple years ago).
For THAT matter, let's talk laptops, desktops, and netbooks for a second. Most people won't own one in a few years: Phones again. Most people use their computers to surf the web, check their email, do facebook, etc., all of which can be done instantly, cheaply, and conveniently on their smart phones. And you know what? Computers have matured enough that computers that most people buy today will still do what they need them to do a decade from now. My mom's computer, for example, was ten years old, and was perfectly fine for her needs through that entire period. But in only a couple years, most people's computers will be gathering dust despite that they operate perfectly fine.
Music: I wasn't sad to see cassette tapes and phonograph records go (sorry, audiophiles, on that last one). CD's are a great technology. They are small(ish) and, (if taken care of) can last forever, and the devices they're played on can last a long time -- years. I've never had a CD player that quit. But mp3 players have made them absolutely obsolete. And let's talk mp3 players. At first, they could only play music. Then, they could play videos. Now -- well, our phones are getting smart enough to do all THAT, too. Bye-bye, dedicated mp3 players that if taken care of can last years if not decades.
Movies: We had VHS players long enough for them to break. They were clunky. And VHS tapes only lasted so long. But then came DVD's... if taken care of, last forever, and the devices they're played on, pretty much the same. Then Blu-Ray players -- with HDTV everywhere now, who wouldn't replace their perfectly good DVD player with a low-end blu-ray player for $60? And in a few years, why bother with DVD or blu-ray at all, when every movie ever made will be available via streaming?
It seems to me that up until the last ten years or so, one could generally "trade up" with relatively little guilt because technology moved slowly enough that things would break around the time that you REALLY wanted to trade up anyway... or at least, the device you were replacing was still of some good use to someone else, and you could give it a nice second life in the hands of someone else. But no; once you get rid of that perfectly good mp3 player that you bought three years ago, no one's going to want it, it's far too obsolete.
I shouldn't complain, but- technology's moving too fast. Just sayin'.
Here's the post. It's about rapid obsolescence.
I'm speaking primarily of standard tube televisions. Which were replaced by flat panels, and that's not so bad. But then there are digital tuners. And streaming off the internet. Sure in both cases you can get an older television to handle them by acquiring new devices, but prior to about the last ten years or so how often did THAT happen? A TV was a TV, and ok, so you needed a cable set-top box and probably also had a DVD player, but you never left like, oh geez, what am I going to have to buy NEXT month? It seems likely that in less than a few years there will be some other must-have technology that hasn't been invented today that televisions will need.
But it's not just that device. Take cameras and PDA's. Those things were wildly popular of course... PDA's for a more limited time. Existing ones, if they're properly taken care of, should last decades... but have been replaced by cell phones that have PDA functionality now. Who carries around a PDA AND a cell phone these days?
How about plain old cameras -- ones that aren't integrated into cell phones? You won't see many of those outside the hands of professionals in a few short years. Existing digital cameras are perfectly good and if taken care of could last decades... but obsolete. The memory cards they store their data on... I wouldn't be surprised if in five years you'd have trouble finding a computer or a picture kiosk that would accept the models available today.
And take the cell phone itself. Only five years ago, there were different kinds of phones, but they all played in the same ecosystem. With the iPhone, the game changed... in a couple years, it'll be hard to find a cell phone that isn't a "smart phone." My phone is a nice touch screen non-smart phone, and it'll last years because I take good care of it, but in September I'll be getting an iPhone anyway because it's a mobile hotspot (a technology not even dreamed of a couple years ago) for an iPad which I also want (another technology that well wasn't viable until a couple years ago).
For THAT matter, let's talk laptops, desktops, and netbooks for a second. Most people won't own one in a few years: Phones again. Most people use their computers to surf the web, check their email, do facebook, etc., all of which can be done instantly, cheaply, and conveniently on their smart phones. And you know what? Computers have matured enough that computers that most people buy today will still do what they need them to do a decade from now. My mom's computer, for example, was ten years old, and was perfectly fine for her needs through that entire period. But in only a couple years, most people's computers will be gathering dust despite that they operate perfectly fine.
Music: I wasn't sad to see cassette tapes and phonograph records go (sorry, audiophiles, on that last one). CD's are a great technology. They are small(ish) and, (if taken care of) can last forever, and the devices they're played on can last a long time -- years. I've never had a CD player that quit. But mp3 players have made them absolutely obsolete. And let's talk mp3 players. At first, they could only play music. Then, they could play videos. Now -- well, our phones are getting smart enough to do all THAT, too. Bye-bye, dedicated mp3 players that if taken care of can last years if not decades.
Movies: We had VHS players long enough for them to break. They were clunky. And VHS tapes only lasted so long. But then came DVD's... if taken care of, last forever, and the devices they're played on, pretty much the same. Then Blu-Ray players -- with HDTV everywhere now, who wouldn't replace their perfectly good DVD player with a low-end blu-ray player for $60? And in a few years, why bother with DVD or blu-ray at all, when every movie ever made will be available via streaming?
It seems to me that up until the last ten years or so, one could generally "trade up" with relatively little guilt because technology moved slowly enough that things would break around the time that you REALLY wanted to trade up anyway... or at least, the device you were replacing was still of some good use to someone else, and you could give it a nice second life in the hands of someone else. But no; once you get rid of that perfectly good mp3 player that you bought three years ago, no one's going to want it, it's far too obsolete.
I shouldn't complain, but- technology's moving too fast. Just sayin'.
